India’s water wars: Navigating the complex politics of regional water sharing
Water, once a basic human need, has now become a critical commodity influencing both national economies and international relations. For India, managing water resources has become an urgent challenge, entangled with regional geopolitics and domestic needs. As water scarcity escalates due to climate change, population growth, and industrial demand, India must balance its needs against the demands of its neighbours over shared rivers and water agreements.
The Indus Water Treaty (IWT) between India and Pakistan, signed in 1960 under the World Bank’s guidance, is one of the most significant examples of water diplomacy in South Asia. The treaty allocates the waters of the Indus River system, granting Pakistan control over the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers, while India retains the rights to the Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi rivers.
Despite its longevity, the Indus Water Treaty is under increasing scrutiny. India has considered reviewing the treaty in light of Pakistan’s alleged support for terrorism and changing geopolitical dynamics. Prominent leaders, such as Prime Minister Narendra Modi and former Union Minister Nitin Gadkari, have hinted at the need to revisit the treaty’s terms or to fully utilise India’s share of the water. Gadkari has emphasised the importance of maximising the use of the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab) within the treaty’s limits to potentially reduce the flow to Pakistan, leveraging water as a political tool. Modi has also indirectly referred to water as a strategic asset, suggesting a tougher stance on water-sharing arrangements amid heightened tensions with Pakistan
For Pakistan, any potential reduction in water flow is seen as a severe threat to its national security, given that the Indus River system is vital for its agriculture, industry, and drinking water supply. Concerns have also been raised over India’s construction of dams and other projects on the western rivers, which Pakistan claims could affect the river flow.
The future of the treaty remains uncertain amidst escalating diplomatic tensions. While India could use the treaty as leverage, any move to abrogate it could lead to international condemnation and possibly escalate the conflict with Pakistan.
While the Indus Water Treaty is often viewed as a successful example of water-sharing diplomacy, the proposed Teesta Water Sharing Agreement between India and Bangladesh remains unresolved. The Teesta River, which flows through West Bengal into Bangladesh, is crucial for millions of people in both countries. In 2011, a draft agreement proposed a 50:50 sharing ratio during the dry season. However, it has been stalled due to political opposition from the West Bengal government, which fears the agreement would harm its farmers.
This deadlock has strained India-Bangladesh relations, with Dhaka viewing the delay as a sign of India’s reluctance to address its concerns. Bangladesh faces domestic pressure to secure a fair deal, while China’s recent offer to assist Bangladesh with water management projects adds a new layer of complexity, highlighting Beijing’s increasing role in regional water politics.
Resolving the Teesta dispute is critical for India to maintain positive relations with Bangladesh and counter China’s influence. A successful negotiation could reinforce India’s position as a reliable regional partner and prevent further geopolitical tension.
China, controlling the headwaters of several major Asian rivers, including the Brahmaputra (Yarlung Tsangpo in Tibet), is a crucial player in the region’s water landscape. The Brahmaputra flows from China into India and Bangladesh, making it vital for millions of people. China’s construction of dams on the upper reaches of the Brahmaputra has raised concerns about reduced water flow and potential flooding downstream.
China’s dam-building activities are seen by many as a strategy to control the river’s flow, potentially using water as leverage in its relations with South Asian countries. This has the potential to become a major flashpoint in Sino-Indian relations, especially as China deepens its involvement in water projects in Bangladesh and Nepal.
India closely monitors China’s activities, understanding that any alteration to the river flow could significantly affect its water security. To manage these challenges, India must engage China in dialogue and strengthen regional cooperation frameworks such as the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC).
India’s water resources are at a critical juncture. Climate change is expected to exacerbate water scarcity and variability, creating significant challenges for balancing domestic needs with international obligations. The World Resources Institute has warned that India could face severe water stress by 2030, with demand exceeding supply by up to 50 percent. This looming crisis demands proactive water management strategies at both national and international levels.
To navigate these challenges, India must adopt a multi-pronged approach, including engaging constructively with neighbouring countries over water-sharing disputes and strengthening regional cooperation mechanisms. Building new frameworks for sustainable water management could help build trust, mitigate conflicts, and promote equitable sharing of water resources.
Water is no longer just a basic need; it has become a strategic asset that will shape the future of nations. For India, effectively managing its water resources is crucial for economic development, social stability, and geopolitical standing. As global water scarcity intensifies, the stakes are higher than ever. India must be prepared to meet these challenges with innovative technologies, sustainable practices, and strong political resolve.
The future of India’s water resources presents challenges but also opportunities for cooperation, innovation, and leadership. By adopting a proactive and integrated approach, India can secure its water future and set an example for other nations. Failure to act could turn water scarcity into a defining crisis of the 21st century, with profound implications for India’s economy, society, and international relations.
